It's Finally Time: An Early Look at Three Prospects in the 2021 Draft Class
After what feels like an eternity, the 2020 NBA Draft is officially in the rearview mirror. Remember that oft-discussed Anthony Edwards 2nd half scoring barrage versus Michigan State in Maui? That was 364 days ago. It feels good to fully be able to move on from that class.
With the NCAA basketball season starting later today, I wanted to give my thoughts on three of the top prospects in the 2021 draft. This is not a “Top-Three Big Board” article (if it were, Cade Cunningham would sure as hell be here), but rather a brief overview of three players who I enjoy watching and would be comfortable selecting highly in this coming draft.
Ziaire Williams-Wing-Stanford
Height: 6’8”
Weight: 185
Wingspan: 6’10.5”
Age on 2021 Draft Day: ~19.8
Ziaire Williams is young, 6’8”, and a dynamite shooter. That’s not too bad a combo to have.
Williams will struggle to get to the foul line. His loose handle prevents him from breaking down defenders off the dribble and he isn’t an accomplished finisher. Most of his self-created looks will be difficult looking pull-ups. That kind of shot diet might turn some people off, but what’s staggering is Williams’ level of touch and comfortability on these looks.
Nice change-of-pace here:
These couple-dribble pull-ups are automatic for him:
Williams will also be a high-end off-ball player in the NBA. He has great spatial awareness as a cutter, and as an off-the-catch shooter...do yourself a favor and don't leave him open. He's more than capable of shooting off of movement, both from three and from mid-range, and he rarely misses from a standstill.
Williams’ passing is underrated by most. He doesn’t have incredible vision, but he’s smart and makes quick decisions with the ball. He does a nice job hitting his big man on these drop-off passes.
Live dribble lefty dime to a cutter? Wow.
Inserting Williams into Stanford’s offense excites me. He can be a gunner off screens and in transition, and his playmaking chops can be extracted on hand-off plays and second-side pick-and-rolls. In this role, he can carry a sizable chunk of usage without being forced to break people down off the dribble.
Williams is also a standout on the defensive end. He’s an instinctual off-ball defender who clogs up passing lanes and disrupts actions with stunts and digs. He has the length and brains to be a competent weak-side rim protector, but his lack of strength and pop off of two feet could limit him.
On the ball, Williams gets into a stance, slides well laterally, and has active hands. He currently lacks the strength to man-guard the powerful wings of the world, but if he adds to his frame, who knows?
Even Sierra Canyon teammate Brandon “Ball on a String” Boston Jr. can’t shake Ziaire free on this play. Quite a display of lateral agility.
It’s hard not to be in on Ziaire Williams. A 6’8” wing with shooting versatility, plus passing for his archetype, and high-end team and on-ball defense? That’s a guy to pencil in as a top 5 pick.
Jalen Johnson-Guard/Wing/Forward-Duke
Height: 6’9”
Weight: 220
Wingspan: ~6’11.5”
Age on 2021 Draft Day: ~19.5
Jalen Johnson is the latest big-time recruit set to suit up for Coach K and the Blue Devils. Johnson is 6’9” with a strong frame that could potentially add even more weight. I couldn’t find an accurate wingspan measurement, but +2.5 seems like a reasonable number to jot down for the time being.
Despite being 6’9”, Johnson's best attribute is likely his passing. The timing on his kickout passes is excellent, he finds cutters well from a standstill, and confidently zings live-dribble darts. He does have some turnover problems to clean up, but that tends to be an issue for all young, gifted passers.
He needs to cut down on these jump passes:
Johnson’s comfort-level as a handler is noteworthy. He loves using his lefty hang dribble to freeze defenders before pouncing.
I wouldn’t dub Johnson an elite athlete. He has a quick first step off the catch, which he can utilize while slashing against a bent defense. He’s able to show off his pop in in transition, but in crowded areas, Johnson can struggle to elevate over defenders. Regardless, I have confidence that he’ll be a good half-court finisher, and someone who gets to the foul line at a high rate, given his combination of dexterity, balance, and strength.
The transition stuff is fun:
Yeesh.
It isn’t worth going into too much depth on Johnson’s defense. He doesn’t try particularly hard and makes some blameworthy gambles, but he’s also a strong, mobile 6’9” guy with great instincts.
Duke has a weird roster this year. It’ll be interesting to see how Coach K organizes his rotation, but what scares me is the team's lack of shooters. The ideal deployment of Johnson is with as many shooters and as much spacing as possible. Will his well-timed kick-out passes prove meaningless if his teammates can't hit open spot-ups? Will some of his finishing limitations get exposed this year with a clogged lane? We’ll have to wait and see.
Johnson’s shooting projection is fascinating one. In 33 total High School games across his Junior and Senior seasons, he shot 32/120 (26.6%) and 100/164 (61%) from the charity stripe. That’s ugly. However, he’s more than willing to fire away from range. 120 attempts in 33 games…that’s a pretty darn strong 3.64 attempts per game.
There’s obviously a lot of mechanical work to be done, but the confidence he’s shown makes me feel better about his ceiling as a shooter.
If Johnson’s efficiency from range increases, I think that he can be one of the two most impactful players on a championship team. Even if his shooting never materializes, Johnson will still be able to contribute in the NBA. His physical measurables and passing vision will allow him to provide value as a short-roll playmaker, or maybe even a hub who can direct offense from the top of the key.
Brandon Boston Jr.-Guard/Wing-Kentucky
Height: 6’6.75”
Weight: 185
Wingspan: 6’10.75”
Age on 2021 Draft Day: ~19.5
Brandon Boston Jr. is a long, skinny, 6’7” wing who will be John Calipari’s next star. The Norcross, Georgia native is a genuinely gifted creator for his size. Boston takes full advantage of his advanced footwork and ball-handling abilities to shake himself free of defenders and create space for himself on his jumper.
Boston has a tendency to hit shots that, as many times as you may rewind them, leave you in awe.
He has some balance issues, like in the play above (still went in LOL), which makes sense given his under-developed lower body, but everything else seems fine mechanically. He gets to his pull-up quickly and efficiently.
Boston is also an impressive shooter off the catch with a quick trigger and deep range. His consistency will have to improve, but guys with his touch who are willing to sling it from the parking lot tend to shoot well in the NBA.
As a slasher, Boston uses his handle to slither his way to the rim. Given his thin frame, he may struggle to finish as he moves up competition levels. However, Boston does have the tools to be a respectable around-the-basket scorer if he can add some muscle. He has excellent body control and his 6’11” wingspan will allow him to pull off extension finishes. He also has some serious pop of off either one or both feet. One thing that’s abundantly clear is that, despite being as thin as he is, Boston readily absorbs and embraces contact.
While Boston is certainly a willing passer, he isn’t someone who can pick apart a defense with his vision. This should be a skip pass to the corner:
For a teenage 6’7” score-first wing-creator, I think he’s in a fine place as a passing prospect. He makes quick decisions and can use his scoring gravity to make plays for others.
Boston has the chance to be a highly impactful defender. He’ll take plays off every now and again, but compared to most highly ranked players his age, Boston is a really impressive team defender with plus instincts. Boston can be a respectable on-ball defender too. He moves pretty well laterally and has nice recovery tools, though I think his footwork needs some work. He’ll provide most of his value as an off-ball roamer who mucks up actions at the nail, makes plays in the passing lanes, and provides some secondary/tertiary rim protection.
Nasty:
I don’t think Boston can surpass the mesmerizing Cade Cunningham as the #1 prospect in this class, but wing creators with elite off-the-dribble scoring chops and plus defensive instincts/length don’t come around too often. For me, he’s in a tier of his own as the second best prospect in this class.
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