Attempting to Crack the College Guard Code

The college guard creator: a lovable, yet difficult archetype. It seems like there are about thirty-five thousand guards who stand out in college basketball in a given year, and it can be hard to decipher just how wide the gaps are between different players. Despite the events of the 2019 Elite 8, Carsen Edwards is not Damian Lillard.

 

So, how do we crack the code? Well, we can’t. That’s just the way the draft is. But we can try.

 

I scoured through BartTorvik and Basketball-Reference collecting data that could help us project how guard prospects will fare in the NBA. You can check out the full spreadsheet here. Amongst all my research, one statistic stands out: Unassisted Rim Makes per 40 Minutes (I’ll refer to it as UARM/40 at times). In other words, how many self-created around-the-rim shots does a given player make every 40 minutes? 

 

I collected nearly 150 different guards’ unassisted rim makes/40 numbers dating back to 2011. While high UARM/40 doesn't automatically yield NBA stars, it most certainly counts for something. 

The layup is the highest percentage field goal attempt in basketball. Create layups and you're golden. Have enough rim gravity to force a defense to collapse on your drive and Voilà! You've created an open shot for a teammate. But generating layup opportunities is easier said than done, especially when you’re going up against Division I defenders, and if you can’t get to the rim in college, how are you going to do so in the NBA?

 

Again, this stat isn’t the end-all-be-all to finding All-Star initiators in the college ranks, but it is an important tool that when used alongside film and other important statistics can help aid us in our evaluations. 

 

The Cream of the Crop

 

Guards with over 2.9 UARM/40

*Note: Kyrie Irving only played 11 games in college. 

De'Aaron Fox, Ja Morant, Kyrie Irving, Trae Young, Victor Oladipo, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, CJ McCollum, and Damian Lillard pop off the page immediately as primary guard creators and elite secondary guys. There are also plenty of disappointments. How do we draw the line?

Shooting still matters. Two words: Elfrid. Payton. Payton got to the rim at a high rate in college, but he just couldn't shoot. 25.9% from three on low volume, 60.9% from the charity stripe, and 26.3% on long 2's as a Junior at Louisiana Lafayette is about as troubling a shooting profile as you're going to find for a 6'3" player. His shooting numbers were stagnant for three straight seasons. De'Aaron Fox's shooting indicators weren't great, but even he shot 12.7% better from the foul line, 11.2% better on long 2's, and had two fewer years of NCAA development. Archie Goodwin, Tony Wroten, Isaiah Briscoe, and Dennis Smith Jr. also fell into the "couldn't shoot" trap. 

You have to be awesome to play in the NBA. You have to be really awesome to be sub-6'2" and play in the NBA. Take Jawun Evans. He got to the rim all the time in his Sophomore year at Oklahoma State. However, he came into the league at 6'0" 170 lbs. Evans' size and lack of vertical pop shows up in his finishing profile: 48.7% at the rim with zero dunks/40 isn't good. Oklahoma Trae Young was similar to Evans in some regards. Trae was tiny, inefficient at the cup, and didn't have a single college dunk to his name. 

There might be a little something that sets Trae Young apart though:

As long as a guard with a high number of rim makes can shoot at a decent level and isn't an undersized, poor vertical athlete, NBA success should be on the horizon. Even if they don't become a Damian Lillard-level megastar, they'll probably be able to stick around the league as a valuable rotation player à la Derick White, Delon Wright, Norman Powell, or Jordan Clarkson. 

 

Six guards in the 2020 class had over 2.9 UARM/40 this year (highlighted below in yellow):

Kansas' Devon Dotson had plenty of rim makes this year, but he's only 6'2", had one dunk in 2 years, and has a questionable jumper. I have similar concerns about Saben Lee, though Lee's vertical pop sets him apart a little bit. No 6'2" prospect in my study has close to as many dunks/40 as Lee does. 

I don't want you to put all your eggs into the Myles Powell basket, but he's still being undervalued in this class. While Powell's shot selection is brash and efficiency isn't the name of his game, I'd consider selecting him in the early-mid second round. 

In my eyes, Grant Riller, Kira Lewis Jr., and Skylar Mays are the three most worthwhile prospects here. 

I wrote about Grant Riller a little while ago, so I won't go into too much depth here. There’s an argument against him: he’s an older prospect that played at a small college who won’t provide much value on the defensive end. But if his scoring package doesn’t wow you, I’m not sure whose will. Fun fact: with a stronger supporting cast at Charleston as a Junior, Riller averaged 4.06 UARM/40, 0.55 dunks/40, and shot 46.8% from mid-range. 

Kira Lewis Jr. is projected to be selected in the 20’s by some major media sites, and I’m not quite sure why. Lewis doesn’t have the body control and functional strength of Riller (not many do), but in terms of pure speed, nobody in this class can match him. 

I question whether or not Kira has what it takes to be THE lead guard on a good NBA team. He has the body of Ja Morant and De'Aaron Fox, but not an ounce of their vertical explosiveness.  Regardless, Kira is a lottery-level prospect. Even if he doesn't become a high-volume initiator, his spot-up shooting and first step off the catch will make him a lethal off-ball player. 

Let's just run by everyone!

Skylar Mays is a 4-year college player with athletic limitations who possesses an intriguing blend of craftiness and strength. Again, size and shooting matter. 

Taller than 6'4" with above 2.9 UARM/40 

Spencer Dinwiddie, Markelle Fultz, and Josh Hart all barely miss the cut. 

Mays also has the best-looking shooting profile on this list by a sizable margin. He probably won't be a primary guard creator for a starting unit, but I'm in on him as starting secondary creator/bench lead guard. 

Vs. Potential top 5 pick Onyeka Okongwu:

 

The Middle of the Pack 

Players with between 2.89 and 1.7 UARM/40

I don’t think it’s possible to filter this list down as we did earlier. Bigger guards seem to fare better, but what about Kemba and FVV (though Freddy is an outlier strength guy)? You probably have to be a top-notch shooter in college, right? Hey, let’s miss out on Bradley Beal and roll with Jimmer Fredette or Marcus Thornton. Efficiency matters…until you realize that these are the top 15 guys in True Shooting from this group:

Lonzo Ball

Allonzo Trier

Khyri Thomas

Justin Wright-Foreman

Charles Jenkins

Aaron Holiday

Jerome Robinson

Marcus Thornton

Nate Wolters

Jordan Adams

Yogi Ferrell

Frank Jackson

Jimmer Fredette

Cody Martin

Jerian Grant

Fred VanVleet posted a TS% of 52% as a senior at Wichita State and Donovan Mitchell was at 53.4% as a sophomore at Louisville. 

 

I’m not saying statistics don’t matter here. They do. Let’s quickly look at the statistical profiles of a couple of players from this group. 

 

 

Tyler Ennis was drafted in the top 20 in 2014. At Syracuse, he didn’t score inside often, wasn’t very efficient around the rim (or in general), was 6’2” and pretty thin, had low win-shares, and didn’t have a great shooting profile. Some basic statistical analysis allows us to conclude that Ennis probably shouldn’t have been drafted as high as he was. 

 

For the most part, Jimmer Fredette’s statistical profile is gorgeous. 

 

There are two major negatives here: 1) the size, low dunks, and low steal rate combo (in other words, failure to hit a few basic athleticism thresholds), and 2) the large quantity of unassisted long 2’s and unassisted threes. Only 31% of Jimmer’s self-created makes came at the rim. 

 

Jimmer falls into the two groups that I'll call in the "no-no lists."

Players 6'3" and shorter with under w/ steal rate under 2.4% and less than 0.2 dunks/40 minutes

Players with either:

Less than 32% of their self-created made field goals made at rim 

or 

Over two unassisted made long 2's/40 and under two unassisted rim makes/40

A few 2020 guys pop up on each of these. Cole Anthony appears on both. Cole is one of the more perplexing prospects in this class. He was a dominant pre-college player who failed to live up to his lofty expectations as a college freshman. I gave him the benefit of the doubt for most of the season. Lineups with Armando Bacot, Leaky Black, and Garrison brooks don't yield ideal spacing, and he also missed time with a meniscus injury. 

Sure, Cole wasn't thrust into an ideal situation at North Carolina, but that doesn't mean we should ignore his obvious flaws. Cole's finishing was a mess this year, his burst didn't translate from high school to the ACC. 

Cole struggling to turn corner against Bama defender:

Cole is a great off the dribble shooter. I just worry about everything else to the point where I'm not sure I'd be willing to invest valuable draft capital on him. 

Here's the rest of the Middle-of-the-Pack UARM/40 guys in the 2020 class: 

I’ll just say this: you're probably not going to find a primary/high-end secondary ball-handler here unless a player is an elite pull-up shooter or guard finisher. 

Below Average

 

Ok, we can narrow this one down. 

Players from the above list over 6’5”:

 

We’ll also set a baseline level for “touch." I don't have access to shooting splits on floaters and runners, so I'll just use the following thresholds: 35% on long 2’s, 75% from free throw line, and 55% at the rim. 

 

 

We lost Zach LaVine, who didn’t have the touch indicators (69% from FT line, 56.7% at rim). LaVine, however, is kind of a different breed, as he happens to be one of the best vertical and first-step athletes in NBA history. 

All the good secondary guard creators from this group are large and have soft touch. All the good primaries are Devin Booker. 

 

The sub-6’5” group isn’t great. Devonte’ Graham had a breakout year in Charlotte. Quinn Cook and Matthew Dellavadova are NBA champions. Cory Joseph gets paid 12 million dollars a year from the Kings. Nonetheless, these aren’t players you want to use lottery picks on. 

 

2020 players in Below Average group: 

 

Interestingly enough, Haliburton falls into the Brogdon/DLo/Herro/Booker group in terms of height and touch. I’m still very skeptical about his potential as a self-creator. Haliburton is only 175 lbs. and given his high hips and narrow shoulders, I’m not sure how much more weight he can add. I also don’t buy him as a handler and pull-up shooter to the same degree as Booker, Herro, Brogdon, or Russell. 

 

Nico Mannion, Ty-Shon Alexander, Immanuel Quickley, and Jahmi'us Ramsey pop up here as well. Mannion and Quickley are on both no-no lists.

I'm not saying these guys aren't capable of playing in the NBA. I'm very high on Ty-Shon Alexander as a suffocating guard defender, and think that Nico Mannion's intelligence is undervalued. I just don't feel good about any of these players as advantage creators. 

You don't need to base your entire evaluation of a player off of their statistical profile, but numbers, and specifically rim makes, can clearly help us in our pursuit to find guard creators in the draft. 

Sources:

https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/

https://barttorvik.com/playerstat.php?link=y&year=2020&start=20191101&end=20200501