Post-Season Evaluation and Outlook for Israeli Forward Deni Avdija
After an excruciating wait, the NBA is finally back. But long before American hoops made its comeback, game-winners were being drilled in the tiny country of Israel.
Why is the Israeli Winner League of importance to me? If you’ve been following the NBA draft process this year, I'm sure you've heard of Maccabi Tel Aviv’s Deni Avdija. Avdija is a 19-year old 6’9” Forward who currently ranks 5th on ESPN's NBA Draft Board.
So, while the Trump Virus kept all of the top American prospects from finishing their respective seasons, Avdija was competing in real basketball games. Maccabi ended up winning the Winner League championship, and Deni was awarded MVP.
Given the amount of buzz that Avdjia is currently receiving, I think it’s worth breaking down his last month of play and discussing his outlook as an NBA prospect.
League | Games | MPG | PPG | APG | RPG | STL | BLK | TOV | FG% | 3P% | FT% | TS% |
I-BSL (post quarantine) | 12 | 29.3 | 14.1 | 3.1 | 6.9 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 2.8 | 48.4% (5.45/11.27) | 32.8% (1.91/5.82) | 71.8% (2.55/3.55) | 59.9% |
I-BSL | 33 | 27.6 | 12.9 | 2.7 | 6.3 | 0.9 | 1 | 2.2 | 52.6% (4.88/9.27) | 35.3% (1.45/4.12) | 59.4% (1.73/2.91) | 61.3% |
Euroleague | 26 | 14.3 | 4 | 1.2 | 2.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 43.6% (1.58/3.62) | 27.7% (0.5/1.81) | 55.6% (0.38/0.69) | 51.5% |
Euroleague (per 36) | 26 | 36 | 10.2 | 2.9 | 6.6 | 1 | 0.6 | 1.8 | 43.6% | 27.7% | 55.6% | 51.5% |
I should provide some context here. Deni’s raw box score numbers are significantly worse in the EuroLeague than they are in the Winner League. The EuroLeague is the undisputed 2nd best league in the world, whereas the Winner League is a pretty low-level domestic league. Maccabi was simply much more comfortable letting Deni loose against lower levels of competition.
I don’t think this is a red flag, as it’s uncommon for 19-year-olds to have major roles on giant clubs like Maccabi. However, it’s definitely worth noting that the bulk of Avdija’s success this season came against the lower ranks.
Offense
Deni's most well-documented offensive issue is his outside shooting. His FIBA and Domestic league shooting percentages aren’t downright terrible, but he’s always been a streaky shooter.
What’s most concerning about Avdija’s shooting projection is his inability to hit shots from the charity stripe. Free throw percentage has proven to be a fairly strong indicator for long-range shooting translation from lower levels to the NBA. Before the break, Avdija was shooting in the 50’s from the foul line, which is basically a death sentence.
Deni clearly worked on his jumper during the quarantine period. He only shot in the low 30’s from three in his final 12 games, but Deni’s volume took a leap forward. His free throw percentage saw a bump up into the low 70’s.
This one is even off of semi-movement.
Leg flail on shot above isn't ideal.
Deni's shooting projection is still pretty murky. His old bad habits still pop up on film. Deni needs to stop kicking his legs out on these simple spot-up attempts. The streakiness remains an issue as well. In his first 5 games, he shot a scorching 48% (14/29) from three. In his final 7, he only shot 20% (7/35).
An area where Avdija has been consistently effective is as a cutter. He has a knack for finding soft spots in the defense and loves to make defenders who didn't get enough sleep the night before pay.
Deni has a quick enough first step off the catch to get to the hole while attacking closeouts. He’s a good leaper off of one foot and has pretty soft touch around the rim.
I still think he could improve here, as sometimes he fails to draw contact against bigger rim protectors. But for the most part, Deni is a strong finisher.
With his (hopefully) improved spot-up shooting, ability to get to the rim and finish off the catch, and high-level cutting, Avdija profiles as someone who could become an effective off-ball player in the NBA.
What about his on-ball game? It seems as though Deni is often labeled as a “point-forward.” Does he really have what it takes to be a jumbo-sized initiator in the NBA? In short, my answer is no.
Throughout the season, Maccabi Tel Aviv was hesitant to insert Deni into a high-usage on-ball role in the Winner League. I can understand not wanting to throw him into the flames against EuroLeague competition, but given how many minutes he received in his domestic league, it should it's worth noting how little trust Maccabi put in Deni to initiate offense in the half-court.
That being said, I do think Deni played a little bit more on-ball to close out the year. Scottie Wilbekin and Tyler Dorsey were still the team’s two top half-court initiators, but Deni certainly was given more opportunities to shine with the ball in his hands.
Even with more on-ball reps, Avdija did not alleviate any of my prior doubts. His lack of explosiveness is concerning. However, it should be common knowledge by now that one can make up for a lack-luster first step off the bounce with an elite handle, change-of-pace, and polished footwork. That’s what makes Luka Doncic so special, and it’s a big reason why I’m a fan of French Guard Killian Hayes.
Unfortunately, he doesn’t possess any of the aforementioned abilities that would help him compensate for his not up-to-snuff first step off the bounce. His ball-handling is above average for a 6’9” player, but he struggles when facing heavy pressure. He isn't dynamic enough to create space on his step-backs and pull-ups.
This inability to create adequate separation is the main reason why Deni is such a poor off-the-dribble shooter. If he can’t create space against defenders in the Winner League, how is he going to be able to do so in the NBA?
Deni doesn’t have the wiggle or burst to consistently get by guys...,
meaning that he will have to rely upon these difficult floaters. This is an excellent display of contact absorption.
But more often than not, he resorts to simply backing down his defender.
The 2nd play I showed also highlights his unwillingness to drive to his left. The left side of the floor is wide open, but rather than spinning that direction to take advantage of this, Avdija just kicks it out.
I’ll touch briefly on Avdija’s post scoring. Deni loves to overpower smaller defenders down low.
He isn't a particularly skilled post player, being far too reliant on brute strength. Given the current state of the league, I'd be pretty surprised if a team actually gives Deni reps in the post.
Let’s move on to Deni’s half-court passing. Avdija doesn’t see the floor at the level of Tyrese Haliburton, nor does he have the flare of LaMelo Ball or Leandro Bolmaro. However, Deni is still a high IQ passer, especially for a 6’9” 19-year old.
Many of Deni’s assists come out of the pick-and-roll. He does a nice job hitting the roll man and knows when to kick it out to the perimeter.
Deni’s handle limits him from being a truly dynamic pick-and-roll initiator. He tends to pick up the ball when pressured, killing plays before they develop. He’s a smart enough passer that I’d be willing to give him some pick-and-roll ball-handling responsibilities on low volume.
This play kind of caught me off guard. Maccabi rarely uses Deni as a roll man. They do here, and he makes an excellent short-roll pass to the corner. Could this be something we see more of in the NBA?
Deni is a talented passer from the post. He does a great job dumping if down to the dunker spot, passing out of double teams, and has the wherewithal to make quick cross-court skip passes. Again, I’m not sure how functional anything he does in the post is considering that it’s unlikely he gets any touches down there in the NBA. Regardless, it’s encouraging that he’s making these reads.
While Deni can’t single-handedly create passing windows, he’s a plus-passer for his position. In my opinion, the best way to utilize Avdija’s playmaking strength is as a fast break initiator. He consistently makes awesome reads in transition, and despite his lack of small-area explosiveness, Deni is actually quite fast when he gets a full head of steam. He has enough straight-line speed to actually create advantages in transition.
Defense
One of his best attributes is his weakside rim-protection. Deni makes timely rotations from the backline to cut off drivers and block or contest shots.
Deni also does a great job walling-up in the low-post.
I’m not completely sure how Avdija's interior defense will translate to the NBA. He doesn’t currently possess the pop, standing reach, or strength to be a high-end rim-protector or low-post defender in the NBA.
Save getting caught overhelping at times, Deni is one of the better team defenders in this class. He stays engaged off-ball, communicates well, and it’s uncommon to see him out of place.
His steal numbers have always been a bit low, which I think is a product of him rarely taking ill-advised gambles. During his final month in the Winner League, he averaged a much-improved 1.5 SPG, showing the ability to force turnovers with his active hands and quick reflexes.
Avdija has made tangible strides as a lateral mover. However, he still needs to loosen his hips and work on sliding rather than crossing his feet.
Here, he doesn't get into a stance and immediately resorts to turning and chasing.
This play is an interesting one. He's slow to turn his hips initially, which allows his man to get a half-step on him. However, Deni is able to recover and pick up a block.
Deni will spend most of his time defending 4’s on the perimeter. If he continues to improve his footwork and hip mobility, he could be able to switch onto 2’s and 3’s as well.
In all honesty, it's difficult to find "bad" defensive clips to show. He never experiences any Anthony Edwards-like defensive lapses, which is a positive sign for a player his age. To close here are a couple transition rejections.
Conclusion
I'm not sure that I have any swooping takeaways from the end of Deni's season. Most of his new film is in-line with my pre-quarantine evaluation. I'll just wrap up with a brief overview of everything that has already been discussed in this piece.
I think it’s pretty clear that Deni doesn't have the self-creation chops to initiate much offense in the half-court. Avdija lacks the burst to get by defenders, nor does he have the handle or change-of-pace to compensate. He gets flustered by ball-pressure and he struggles to adequately create separation for himself. It’s unreasonable to expect Avdija to develop into a dynamic, point-forward in the NBA.
That doesn’t mean I think he's a bad prospect. I just view Avdija as someone who will primarily be used off-the-ball. He’s easily one of the best cutters in this class and I believe in his off-ball jumper. He’ll never be a true long-range sniper, but I expect Deni to be able to hit spot-ups and shoot off of semi-movement with decent volume and efficiency.
While I'm skeptical of his potential as a half-court creator, I think he'll excel as an initiator on the break. His transition passing is impressive, and he has the speed to create advantages.
Defensively, Avdija’s effort and intelligence both stand out. He plays hard and puts himself in position to succeed. His recognition as a weakside rim-protector is impressive for a 19-year old, and he could be able to defend a couple of positions on the perimeter.
There are question marks defensively. He put on some weight during the quarantine period, but he needs to continue to bulk up for his rim-protection to be truly valuable against NBA athletes. He’ll also need to improve his footwork and lateral mobility so that he can stick with NBA back-court players away from the rim. All in all, I trust Deni to become a slightly above average defensive player in the NBA.
I think this play pretty much encapsulates Avdjia's greatest strengths:
I disagree with the folks who have dubbed Deni a top 3 prospect in this class. To me, he's an appealing option in the mid-to-late lottery range. The obvious swing skill is his off-ball shooting. If his free throw percentage is any indicator of what’s to come, it will be difficult for Avdija to ever be a plus-impact offensive player. If the cards fall right, Deni Avdija could become a starting piece on a contending team as a two-way swiss army-knife combo-Forward.
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