Grant Riller Deserves Your Attention
Grant Riller was born in Orlando and played high school ball at Ocoee H.S. He shot 57% from the field and averaged 28 PPG as a senior. Despite these lofty numbers, Riller was still only a 2-star recruit who committed to the College of Charleston.
When Riller got to Charleston in 2015, he was tiny. 247 Sports listed his weight at 150 lbs. In the summer going into his Freshman year, Charleston played Clemson in a preseason scrimmage. Riller had 23 points with 8 minutes left against the ACC school. Unfortunately, he went down with an ACL injury and was forced to redshirt for a season. Riller later described the injury as “a blessing in disguise,” as it allowed him to improve his body and iron-out his skillset.
Riller was eased back into basketball during his redshirt freshman year, but broke out in conference play as the team’s second-leading scorer.
He led Charleston in scoring in his sophomore year while playing alongside future NBA players Joe Chealey and Jarrell Brantley. The Cougars winded up winning the Colonial Athletic Association championship and earned an NCAA Tournament bid where they fell by four points to Auburn.
Riller’s final 2 seasons in college weren’t filled with the same levels of team triumph. Chealey graduated after the 2018 season, as did Brantley the next year. College of Charleston finished 3rd and 4th respectively in the CAA in 2019 and 2020. Despite his lack of team success, Riller established himself as a force to be reckoned with at the college level and has now garnered NBA interest.
General Stuff
Name: Grant Riller
Age: 23.6
Team: College of Charleston
Height: 6'3" (could be shorter)
Weight: 190 lbs
ESPN, The Athletic, CBS, and The Ringer Big Board Rank: 39, 26, 27, 42
Riller’s patented skill is his ability to get to the cup and finish. His first step is ridiculously quick, and at the college level he got to the rim at will. But he’s more than just a guy with a first step. What makes his slashing so special is his ability to change speeds and direction.
Safe to say he had some rim gravity in college:
Riller ranked in the 97th percentile as a pick-and-roll ball-handler this year (1.1 points/possession) against coverages designed to stop him. He'd get trapped and still find a way to slither to the hole. There were situations in which he’d face both a dropping big and another weakside rim protector on the same possession. Even when teams loaded up the paint against him, he had the strength to finish through defenders and the ability to squeeze his way into the tiniest of creases in a defense.
C of C often played Riller off-ball to utilize his attacking off the catch. Riller’s first-step from a standstill is quick and powerful.
Riller's combination of balance, dexterity, touch, and body control allowed him to shoot 70.6% at the rim this season. He can absorb contact, finish with a contorted body, and hit difficult runners. Riller is also a masterful foul drawer in the paint, posting a .470 Free Throw Rate this year.
To put into perspective just how special Riller is as an around-the-rim scorer, here’s a list of players 6’4” and shorter since 2008 to shoot 70% at the basket on 200 attempts in one season (a feat that Riller accomplished as a junior):
More players join him when minimum number of attempts is lowered to 150, but look at the Assisted% of Riller's rim makes compared with that of the other players on this list. Almost all of his attempts are self-created.
Name | Year | Class | Rim FGM | Rim FGA | Rim FG% | % of Rim FGM Assisted |
Grant Riller | 2019 | Jr. | 141 | 200 | 70.5 | 15.6 |
Grant Riller | 2020 | Sr. | 108 | 153 | 70.6 | 13.9 |
Jae’Sean Tate | 2017 | Jr. | 137 | 189 | 72.5 | 29.9 |
Ahmad Thomas | 2017 | Jr. | 120 | 169 | 71 | 41.7 |
Terence Davis | 2017 | So. | 123 | 161 | 76.4 | 29.3 |
Fredrick Edmond | 2016 | Jr. | 111 | 157 | 70.7 | 23.4 |
Corey Walden | 2015 | Sr. | 114 | 155 | 73.5 | 42.1 |
Jimmer Fredette | 2011 | Sr. | 109 | 151 | 72.2 | 29.4 |
There have been ten (nine, I suppose, since Nate Wolters is on here as both a Sophomore and Junior) players 6’4” and under to get to the rim 200 times who went on to be selected in the NBA Draft.
Name | Year | Rim FGM | Rim FGA | Rim FG% | % of Rim FGM Assisted |
Grant Riller | 2019 | 141 | 200 | 70.5 | 15.6 |
Darius Morris | 2011 | 178 | 243 | 69.5 | 49.1 |
Elfrid Payton | 2014 | 169 | 247 | 68.4 | 24.9 |
De’Aaron Fox | 2017 | 131 | 203 | 64.5 | 13.7 |
Norman Powell | 2015 | 132 | 217 | 60.8 | 27.3 |
Nate Wolters | 2012 | 131 | 216 | 60.6 | 22.9 |
Ja Morant | 2019 | 160 | 264 | 60.6 | 26.9 |
Semaj Christon | 2014 | 119 | 205 | 58 | 59.7 |
Nate Wolters | 2011 | 107 | 204 | 52.5 | 13.1 |
Trae Young | 2018 | 105 | 201 | 52.2 | 11.4 |
Josh Okogie | 2017 | 108 | 215 | 50.2 | 54.6 |
Again, lots of high Assisted% guys. The players with less than 20% of their attempts assisted are Trae Young, Nate Wolters, De’Aaron Fox, and Riller. Riller shot nearly 20% better than Young and Wolters at the rim, so the only real point of comparison here is De’Aaron Fox.
Here are his finishing stats from 2017 and 2018 for good measure.
Name | Year | Class | Rim FGM | Rim FGA | Rim FG% | % of Rim FGM Assisted |
Grant Riller | 2017 | Fr. | 85 | 125 | 68 | 15.3 |
Grant Riller | 2018 | So. | 118 | 170 | 69.4 | 23.7 |
Next, let’s talk about Riller’s jumper from both inside and beyond the arc. Projecting how a player’s jump shot will translate from lower levels to the NBA is an inexact science. Josh Jackson shot 38% from three in college while Kawhi Leonard was a career 25% long-range shooter at San Diego State. Raw 3-point percentage matters, but it isn’t the only indicator for shooting success in the pros. While discussing Riller’s jump shot, I will be talking about the following important shooting indicators: 2-point volume/versatility/efficiency, 3-point volume/versatility/efficiency, free-throw shooting, touch around the rim, and mechanics.
I: 2-point volume/versatility/efficiency
Here’s a look at his mid-range shooting profile per season:
Class | Mid-range FGM | Mid-range FGA | Mid-range FG% | % of FGM assisted |
Sr. | 65 | 162 | 40.1 | 3.1 |
Jr. | 59 | 126 | 46.8 | 13.6 |
So. | 30 | 74 | 40.5 | 6.7 |
Fr. | 31 | 79 | 39.2 | 6.5 |
Total | 185 | 441 | 42 | 7.6 |
That’s a lot of volume, and strong efficiency considering the degree of difficulty in his average shot attempt. Of his career 185 mid-range makes, only 14 of them were assisted.
The versatility here is elite.
He can use his handle to get his man off balance, and then stop on a dime and pull-up.
He can comfortably pull-up off of a ball-screen,...
...stick turn-around J's,...
…and create space with side-steps and step-backs. Some of the quickest footwork you'll ever see here.
He also loves this rip-through move.
On all dribble jumpers (3-pointers included), Riller ranks in the 83rdpercentile (0.96 points per possession).
II: 3-point volume/versatility/efficiency
4-year long-range shooting profile:
Class | 3-point FGM | 3-point FGA | 3-point FG% | % of 3PM assisted |
Sr. | 47 | 129 | 36.4 | 48.9 |
Jr. | 44 | 132 | 33.3 | 50 |
So. | 50 | 127 | 39.4 | 70 |
Fr. | 37 | 112 | 33 | 78.4 |
Total | 178 | 500 | 35.6 | 61.2 |
35.6% doesn’t jump off the page, but again, it’s impressive considering the shots he was taking. Only 48.9% of his threes were assisted this year, and he still shot 36.4%. Efficiency wise, he was at his best as a sophomore, which makes sense as a high percentage of his makes were assisted.
Just like he is from inside the arc, Riller is a versatile shooter from outside with the ability to hit shots while playing either on or off-the-ball. The space creation chops are there: sidesteps, step backs, hesitations into pull-ups, rip-throughs into fadeaways. He can hit shots over the tops of screens, and confidently pull-up from way downtown in transition. He also ranked in the 96th percentile (1.26 points/possession) on spot-up attempts and has shown the ability to shoot off of off-ball movement.
Riller’s career .310 3-point attempt rate is low for a guard, but it would be foolish to call him a reluctant shooter. This number is likely a product of Riller simply trying to get downhill as much as possible-something that he was able to do with incredible ease. There were games where he scored 20+ points and won while only taking two threes. It worked for him. Regardless, he still attempted 500 threes in college (526 if we include postseason numbers), shot with solid efficiency, and there clearly aren't any confidence issues.
III: Free throw shooting.
Class | FTM | FTA | FT% |
Fr. | 103 | 129 | 79.8 |
So. | 97 | 133 | 72.9 |
Jr. | 150 | 186 | 80.6 |
Sr. | 177 | 214 | 82.7 |
Total | 527 | 662 | 79.6 |
80+% from three in his last 2 seasons, career. 79.6% from three for his career on very high volume. He isn’t an outlier good free throw shooter, but there aren’t any red flags here. Check.
IV: Touch around the rim
Yes.
V: Mechanics
Riller’s mechanics are generally fine. He gets good elevation. It seems as though he naturally leans back a bit. When he shoots it from really deep, the shot looks a little flat. He sometimes brings the ball over to the left side of his body. Tweaks can be made, but there’s nothing too concerning here.
All in all, Riller’s shooting projection is far from murky. Though he isn’t a knockdown shooter, I’d be pretty surprised if he isn’t able to shoot both off the catch and off the dribble with solid volume and efficiency.
Let’s move onto Riller’s passing ability. Riller isn’t a gifted passer by any means. He isn’t a proactive passer who sees plays before they happen.
Regardless, Riller has shown the ability to make basic reads. Him and Sam Miller formed a formidable pick-and-pop duo.
Great patience here:
This is a tricky one. Riller rejects the screen, gets doubled, and hits Sam Miller with a lefty behind-the-back pass.
He times his dishes to rollers and cutters well.
When the opposing team blitzes, he does a good job staying composed and making the appropriate read.
Riller’s rim gravity leads to a lot of kick-out passes to surrounding shooters.
A few more possessions where he does a good job using his gravity:
Riller’s 14.8 turnover rate isn’t great. In some cases, turning the ball over is okay for prospects; I see it as a willingness to try and execute difficult passes. But some of Riller’s decisions are baffling.
While Riller’s turnover numbers are fairly high, they shouldn’t be that concerning. It’s what happens when you have the ball in your hands all the time. 37 drafted players since 2008 have logged seasons with usage rates greater than 32%. Of those 37, Riller ranks in the top 11 in assist rate and bottom 11 in turnover rate.
While it’s obvious that Riller isn’t a genius-level playmaker, I’m high on Riller’s passing. Why? He can create advantages. Passing windows open when a player is a threat to score. If you buy Riller as a capable scorer in the NBA, then you should buy him as a passer at least to some degree.
Before I move onto his defense, I want to share a few more statistical tidbits. Riller is a mid-major guy, so it’s natural to question the level of competition that he has faced.
Riller played seven games against tournament teams during his final three college seasons, one of which was a round of 64 matchup versus Auburn. Below is a chart with his box score stats in each of those games. He played against Villanova as a Freshman, but because his minutes during non-conference play were inconsistent coming off of his ACL injury, I decided not to include it. Riller only played 19 minutes in that matchup.
Also, Covid-19 prevented the 2020 NCAA Tournament from taking place, meaning that Providence and Richmond aren’t technically “tournament teams.” However, both the Friars and the Spiders were projected to comfortably make the field by both ESPN and CBS.
Vs. | Class | PTS | AST | REB | TO | STL | FGM | FGA | FG% | 3PM | 3PA | 3P% | FTM | FTA | FT% |
Providence | Sr. | 29 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 15 | 60 | 2 | 6 | 33.3 | 9 | 10 | 90 |
Richmond | Sr. | 21 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 15 | 46.7 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 8 | 87.5 |
LSU | Jr. | 4 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 20 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
VCU | Jr. | 30 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 14 | 71.4 | 3 | 4 | 75 | 7 | 8 | 87.5 |
Wichita State | So. | 21 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 13 | 53.8 | 1 | 4 | 25 | 5 | 8 | 62.5 |
Rhode Island | So. | 21 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 15 | 53.3 | 1 | 3 | 33 | 4 | 5 | 80 |
Auburn | So. | 16 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 15 | 40 | 2 | 8 | 25 | 2 | 4 | 50 |
Vs. Tournament Teams/2020 projected tournament teams (7 games) | - | 20.3 | 2.7 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 7 | 13.9 | 50.5 | 1.3 | 4.7 | 27.3 | 4.9 | 6.1 | 79 |
So.-Sr. Seasons | - | 20.8 | 3.3 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 7.4 | 14.1 | 52.7 | 1.5 | 4.2 | 36.2 | 4.4 | 5.5 | 79.5 |
Miniscule 7-game sample size alert! Simplest contextless chart in the world alert! But playing against higher level teams didn’t hinder his statistical output too much. The LSU game in his Junior year stands out as the only real egg-lay. After going back and re-watching that game, it’s pretty obvious why Riller was only able to score 4 points. LSU had Skylar Mays mirroring him, a big man waiting for him in the paint, and at least one more backline defender helping throughout the entire game. The gameplan was literally “hey, you can do whatever the hell you want, but this guy isn’t scoring.” In LSU’s pursuit to eliminate Grant Riller, they allowed Jarrell Brantley to score 27 points in a game that wasn’t even a total blowout. The gravity translated.
What also separates Riller from other mid-major guards is his how efficient he was given his high usage rate. Here's a list of players between 6’ and 6’5” with a usage rate greater or equal to 32 and a true shooting percentage greater or equal to 60:
Jimmer and Josh Adams didn’t work out, but this is ridiculous group of guys.
There isn’t too much to talk about on the defensive end. I’d describe Riller’s defense as inconsistent. When he’s locked in, he’s not bad. But unfortunately, he isn’t always locked in.
His pick-and-roll defense is suspect. Here he dies on a screen and half-heartedly swipes at the ball.
He needs to work on keeping his head on a swivel. His ball-watching on this play leads to a back-cut and a layup.
No real analysis here. Just slips and gets beat off the dribble.
Never gets into a stance on this one:
While measuring defensive impact with statistics is impossible, Riller’s 1.1 Defensive BPM, 1.4 Defensive Win Shares, and 100.9 D-Rating are all fairly concerning.
But as I mentioned, there is hope. Riller has both plus-strength and plus-lateral movement for his position, which leads me to believe that he can survive defending on-the-ball. He has some acumen as a team defender as well and can be disruptive in the passing lanes. He posted a solid 2.8 steal rate this year.
Here outmuscles a 6'5", 210 pounder:
Gets skinny around the screen, shuffles his feet, and forces a tough shot:
A couple of plays in the passing lanes:
Tags roll-man, recovers out to the perimeter, and gets a steal.
Chasing a man around a screen and making a great close-out.
I like this play a lot. Oklahoma State’s Isaac Likekele penetrates and looks for the kick-out pass to the perimeter. Riller is tasked with defending two players at once. He slides up to make it seem as if he’s committing to a man on the wing, tricking Likekele into dishing it to the corner. Riller shifts back down and forces a turnover.
Lots of positives on this clip. Starts out by helping on Santos-Silva, and then denies his man the ball to prevent a back-door pass. Finishes the play by forcing an air-ball.
I think a realistic high-end outcome on the defensive end is that Riller is a slight-negative guy. While there are some good moments on film, the fact that he wasn’t a good defensive player as a 23-year old in the CAA is problematic. His defensive woes may simply be correlated with the heavy burden he carried offensively, but even if that is the case, it’s still unreasonable for me to project him to be anything more than a slight-negative given what he's displayed up to this point.
The good news is that all Riller has to do is get by on that end to be a productive NBA player. Offensive creators are valuable. One thing that has been apparent to me during the NBA restart is that every team needs multiple players who can create their own shot and score off the dribble from all three levels. Riller’s archetype is what every team should want. What also makes Riller special is his scalability off-ball. He's a strong spot-up shooter, and his first step off the catch is insane. If he isn’t a high-usage primary initiator, he has a role to fall back upon.
While the track record for older players selected in the lottery isn't great, Riller's skills and statistical profile are impossible to ignore. He's the most talented scorer in this class, and the only other player in the same conversation as him is potential #1 overall pick Anthony Edwards. While Riller's age may make him inherently more valuable to some teams than others, he should be universally viewed as one of the ten best prospects the 2020 class.
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Special thanks to Sports Reference, BartTorvik, and all the folks who post full game replays online.
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