December Draft Thoughts: Miles McBride, Carlik Jones, and Evan Mobley
College basketball is back, Gonzaga is absurd, the 2021 Draft bees are a buzzin', and Cade is still the man.
My plan today is to give my brief thoughts on three college prospects. My goal for 2021 is to write one of these articles every month until we get closer draft day.
Okay, enough jibber-jabber.
*All stats used as of 12-17-20
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I first came upon Louisville Grad-Transfer Carlik Jones after digging through some statistical profiles during the preseason. At Radford last year, Jones averaged 3.78 unassisted rim makes/40 minutes while shooting 40.9% from three on 6.7 attempts/100 possessions and 81.4% from the foul line. That is the statistical profile of a very real guard prospect.
Based on his high rim-make frequency, I assumed coming into the year that Jones was a speedy undersized guard with a nasty first-step. My pre-conceived notion couldn’t have been any further from the truth. Jones’ burst leaves a lot to be desired, yet he still generates plenty of rim pressure. He wins with skill and craft. His movements are methodical rather than violent – he just weaves and bobs his way into the paint.
I have no clue how all this ends up in a floater from 4-feet out.
Jones is a masterful pick-and-roll scorer. Here he probes before cutting back to his right and finishing with a contorted body.
Snakes this one into a pull-up from the elbow:
Lefty in-and-out into a pull-up:
Rejects the screen with a hesi and finishes with his inside hand:
This stop-and-pop jumper perfectly encapsulates Jones' style of creation. He's literally walking to start the play, but with each stride he takes, he speeds up just a little bit. He stops, but his defender doesn’t. It's this strange, slow-motion acceleration and deceleration that allows Jones to throw defenders of balance.
That being said, Jones' size and lack of burst are major issues that are especially prevolant when he's asked to create in isolation or finish amongst the trees.
Jones’ signature skill at the college level might actually be his playmaking. At 6’2” with obvious athletic deficiencies, Jones doesn’t have access to every pass imaginable. Still, he’s able to create windows with pacing and manipulation.
Jones could've just taken an uncontested layup, but he instead goes out of his way to make poor Mamu look like a fool.
The accuracy on this one isn't perfect, but it's a skip pass with his off-hand.
He then intelligently relocates to the wing and hits a spot-up three.
Jones' shooting profile is a mixed bag. He’s shot a strong 42.4% in his last 2 college seasons combined while slotting in the low 80’s from the free throw line. The issue is that he doesn’t shoot enough threes. 4.1 3PA/100 possessions this year and 6.1 for his career aren't going to cut it for a small guard. By my eye, he doesn’t have the quickest release, which is an issue for someone at his size.
Carlik Jones is a pleasure to watch at the college level. As far as his NBA projection goes, I’m unsure about what to do with him. For now, he’s more “guy to keep your eye on” than definitive NBA prospect. The two main questions he'll have to answer are 1) how effective is his quirky creation style against higher levels of competition? and 2) how far along his his jumper. If his rim pressure and finishing efficiency (62 FG% at rim this year) hold through conference play, while his 3PA/100 increases into the ~7 range, then this becomes a more serious conversation.
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Miles McBride-Guard-West Virginia
Miles McBride is a 6’2”, 195 lbs. Sophomore Guard from West Virginia. McBride was a 2-sport athlete in high school who garnered college interest as a quarterback. Ultimately, he chose hoops over pigskin and committed to WVU.
What immediately stands out about McBride is his prowess on the defensive end. He has the lateral agility and hip fluidity to stick to any college guard. He rarely gives up any separation at the point of attack, and consistently bumps drivers off their spots. While his lack of size may prevent him from defending larger perimeter creators, McBride still has the potential to be a terrorizing presence against most 1’s and 2’s.
This is a clip that requires no real analysis. It's a full shot clock of cruelty.
McBride specializes in chasing guys on the perimeter and blowing up dribble-hand-off actions. After disrupting the initial DHO action in this clip, McBride stays glued to his man, denying the ball and getting a deflection.
Unfortunately, his over-aggressiveness can lead to back-cuts at times.
The recovery to block this shot is nice.
McBride’s instincts as a help defender and a passing lane cog are special. It’s as if he’s able to see plays before they unfold. I almost wonder if his football background has helped him become such a high-level off-ball defender. Gonzaga’s Jalen Suggs is another former high school quarterback who shares McBride’s telepathic instincts.
Here, McBride looks more like a Free Safety than a quarterback. He tags the roller before shifting back to corner, baiting Jacob Gilyard into making an ill-advised pass.
Let’s move onto McBride’s offensive game, where his most intriguing skill is his proficiency as an off-the-dribble shooter. He was a good pull-up shooter as a freshman, particularly from mid-range. It seems like this season, he has put an emphasis on extending some of those pull-up two-pointers into off-the-dribble threes.
| 2019-20 | 2020-21 |
Long 2 FG% | 38.8% | 40% |
Unassisted Long 2’s/40 mins | 2.03 | 1.76 |
3P% | 30.4% | 42.9% |
Unassisted Threes/40 mins | 0.76 | 1.06 |
Here he shows off some shake on the screen reject, even though the shot doesn’t end up falling:
Based on some these clips, it may seem like McBride is capable of carrying a serious scoring load in the half-court. His difficult shot-making chops are certainly eye-catching. That’s also kind of the issue here – these are all difficult shots. Easy looks, particularly at the rim, do not exist in his diet. His 1.41 unassisted rim makes/40 are below-average compared to other recent guard prospects. Playing in an offense with two post-oriented bigs isn’t doing him any favors, but his inability to turn the corner is still an issue.
When McBride does get to the rim, he seldom looks comfortable. With his lack of pop and creativity as a finisher, he will need to rely on his strength to score around the rim in the NBA. The good news is that he theoretically has the strength to absorb contact. The bad news is that he’s hesitant to use this strength against larger rim protectors. After getting cut off by Charles Bassey, McBride panics and gets called for a travel.
For this reason, McBride is not a guy who I envision initiating too much offense in the half-court. What’s good is that his shot-making can still pay dividends in the form of closeout creation.
But in order to create off of closeouts, he’ll have to draw closeouts. How far along is McBride’s jumper? Last year he shot 30.4% from range on 6.6 attempts/100 possessions with a 74.7 FT%. This year, his volume has dipped to 5.1 attempts/100 possessions, but his 3-point and Free Throw percentages have increased to 42.9% and 79.2%. I wish his 3-point volume were higher, but his shooting indicators are still solid.
Considering his other-worldly spatial awareness on the defensive end, you’d think that McBride would be a better passer than he is. He isn't a ball-stopper, but he misses a lot of basic reads. What’s encouraging is that his assist rate is up 10% from last year and he seems a bit more comfortable hitting his bigs on laydowns.
One interesting development from this season is McBride’s sub-10 turnover rate. This highlights his lack of ambition as a passer, but how much ambition does he need? In a low-usage off-guard role, all he needs to do is make sound decisions against a defense in rotation.
I attempted to quantify McBride's archetype in a Barttorvik stat query. I essentially ran a search for college guards since 2008 with high Defensive-BPM and stock numbers who meet low-bar shooting and Offensive-BPM thresholds.
And I think we’ve done it. You can see Freshman year McBride on the list, and it’s likely that Sophomore McBride will soon join this group.
If we’re trying to weed out some of the non-NBA guys from here, it seems like those who generally recorded high assist rates and lower turnover rates have fared better. Donovan Mitchell doesn’t fit that bill, but him popping up is strange in the first place given how different he is stylistically than every other player here. I’d assume the high assist and/or low-turnover numbers are indicative of plus decision-making, which is obviously important for any role player to have. McBride’s 27.2 assist rate and 9.6 turnover rate bodes well for him.
To me, players in this archetype provide the most value when playing alongside other half-court creators. Think Marcus Smart with Tatum/Kemba/Kyrie/IT4 in Boston, or Mario Chalmers with LeBron and DWade. Those tasked with too much half-court creation have struggled. De’Anthony Melton’s career trajectory alone basically proves my point. The Suns used Melton as a lead guard as a rookie, and the results were poor. In Memphis, Melton has turned his career around playing off of Ja Morant.
That’s the case for drafting McBride. Elite defensive guards who are capable of hitting spot-ups and attacking closeouts provide a lot of value to teams with offensive engines. If the McBride-train picks up too much steam, he'll run the risk of joining a team that doesn’t have enough creation in place, forcing him into too high a usage role. If McBride ends up with an organization that already has it's offensive engines in place, I expect him to thrive. For those specific teams, he's probably one of the ten most valuable players in this class.
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I felt firmly that Brandon Boston Jr. was the second best player in this class during the preseason. I’m not tossing my Boston stock out the window after five games on a weird Kentucky team, but I will admit to being far too bullish on his potential as a half-court creator. That being said, I think there's a new man at the forefront of the #2 debate. It's Evan Mobley.
Mobley has the chance to be a special rim protector. He uses his 7’4” wingspan, mobility, and elite rotational instincts to swat everything that comes his way. Notice how quickly he gets off the ground, barely even having to bend his knees.
With the foot speed, length, and ground coverage to play either above or below the level of screens, Mobley has the chance to be a true coverage versatile big, a valuable commodity in today's NBA.
His quick-leaping ability also translates to the offensive end, where Mobley has established himself as a high-end play-finisher.
But, Mobley has the potential to be a whole lot more than a play-finishing roll man. One of his best traits is actually his passing, and more specifically, his passing versatility.
Short-roll pass to the corner:
Out of a double from the post:
High-Low interior pass:
Full-court transition zinger:
Lob on a Snug PnR:
Leads the shooter into this one:
I’ll be intrigued to see how his 3-point jumper looks during conference play. Through five games, he’s shot 4-for-9 from long-range.
The sample size needs to increase before we can make any firm conclusions on how good a shooter Mobley is, but what’s encouraging for his long-term shooting projection is his touch on face-up J's and righty hook shots from inside of the arc. He’s made a strong 11 of his 20 mid-range attempts so far this season.
And finally, behold what I find to be the scariest Evan Mobley play of them all:
Plenty of Mobley’s drives get cut-off. It’s partially a product of him lacking strength and playing too upright, and partially Andy Enfield’s poorly spaced offense. But, when Mobley is able to get low and fully take advantage of his gazelle-like stride lengths, the results are scary.
It's the kind of play that gets me excited about what Mobley can be. What if he becomes a dominant slasher? What if he's also playmaking out of pick-and-rolls, and hitting spot-up and off-the-pop threes? Sure, that's a lot of "what if?" statements, but these aren't just speculative, unattainable "what ifs." These are things that Mobley has put on film, and could actually be capable of doing in the NBA.
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